The Next Big Thing in Technology

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future” Yogi Berra

We’ll agree right now with Yogi and acknowledge that forecasting anything anytime is hard. It is especially hard when forecasting technology, which is a market that relentlessly reinvents itself every few years. While anticipating technology trends is a challenge, it is nevertheless essential for every company to 'futurecast’. Afterall, technology is fundamental to business performance in every Industry. No one wants to be the next Blockbuster, Kodak, Yahoo or JC Penney.

We looked at a few of the technology forecasts made by the Industry leaders, to see how accurate they were. IBM has been publishing their Global Technology Outlook since 1982. They use the process internally to guide investments and allocate scarce resources, hopefully tacking towards a horizon where they might anticipate and lead a new market. Two of the trends they called correctly in 2008 included cloud and mobile computing. Had they shifted investments as aggressively that year as some of their competitors, it would be a different IBM today.

But we’re not here to play armchair quarterback. Making predictions is tough. Betting your business on those predictions is tougher. Especially when operating in an Industry where the rate of change is logarithmic.

Take Adtech for example. Every marketer is looking to meet a consumer with a message at a time and place that will deliver the best outcome. The most prominent Adtech platforms have disrupted the Industry in shocking ways over the past two decades, but much more change is needed (and coming) as we discussed in previous posts. These changes are easy to enumerate, but difficult to anticipate. Privacy, minaturization, IOT, location-based services and brand safety are just a few areas poised for transformative change. But the speed and form of the change, including the impact on consumer behavior and shopping habits, cautions even the most aggressive executives from betting their business.

So how do we anticipate and plan for change? We have a few suggestions:

• Maintain broad and productive partnerships, working with innovators who can help you envision the future;

• Avoid vendor lock in. Your business needs to preserve freedom of action for your most critical processes, such as marketing campaigns and sales. Although a few platforms dominate right now, regulatory mandates will force change in this market within a few years;

• Finally, seed your own innovation lab. Some of the most important insights and inventions flow not from vendors, but from companies applying “experimental technology” in their own environments. Some ideas will be quickly dismissed as a poor fit. Others will be flagged as having great potential. In all instances, a business will discover the best path to the future through their own applied innovation and learning.

We’re here to help. Please contact us if you are interested in learning more about the “state of the art” in messaging platforms. Or if you simply want to test a few ideas in your own venue.